Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.348443 1.422675 1.499877 1.586362 1.680787 1.781022 1.895827
2025-12-07 1.222762 1.325458 1.436885 1.567505 1.717387 1.885161 2.088836
2025-12-14 1.129762 1.246009 1.375648 1.532269 1.718197 1.934246 2.207895
2025-12-21 1.071557 1.198421 1.343093 1.522308 1.741268 2.004082 2.349790
2025-12-28 1.037176 1.174517 1.334318 1.536859 1.791047 2.105700 2.535155
2026-01-04 0.994350 1.137197 1.306093 1.524166 1.803951 2.159353 2.660010
2026-01-11 0.970493 1.120836 1.301460 1.539086 1.850926 2.257861 2.850758
2026-01-18 0.943445 1.098771 1.287970 1.540970 1.879680 2.332501 3.012964
2026-01-25 0.930842 1.093686 1.294951 1.568817 1.943477 2.457877 3.258225
2026-02-01 0.894993 1.057565 1.260402 1.539577 1.927012 2.468561 3.331470
2026-02-08 0.856441 1.016544 1.217791 1.497299 1.889670 2.446112 3.350246
2026-02-15 0.831712 0.992397 1.196160 1.482224 1.889353 2.476928 3.454820
2026-02-22 0.815318 0.979277 1.189504 1.488706 1.922100 2.561978 3.661240
2026-03-01 0.790557 0.954396 1.166281 1.471089 1.918795 2.591963 3.778746
2026-03-08 0.762132 0.923698 1.134033 1.439133 1.892177 2.583257 3.827188
2026-03-15 0.743814 0.905829 1.118469 1.430088 1.899119 2.627644 3.974157
2026-03-22 0.734506 0.899652 1.118531 1.443298 1.940288 2.729748 4.238533
2026-03-29 0.717278 0.882176 1.102264 1.431775 1.942162 2.766453 4.382018
2026-04-05 0.709398 0.877139 1.103071 1.445320 1.983951 2.873296 4.677081
2026-04-12 0.698099 0.867017 1.096279 1.447029 2.006594 2.948311 4.916869
2026-04-19 0.694810 0.867814 1.104913 1.472290 2.068778 3.098104 5.338789
2026-04-26 0.675751 0.846081 1.080505 1.445765 2.043443 3.086438 5.399166
2026-05-03 0.653880 0.819940 1.049089 1.407367 1.996473 3.031760 5.354411